Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Follow up on Gold

Gold got to peek above the trendline in the downward sloping channel and looked poised for a solid breakout with a few days of solid momentum behind it.  Then the rumor was a "fat finger" trade came in, conveniently smashing the gold price safely back down inside the bearish channel.  Pure coincidence?  I don't know, but as I always say I don't care about manipulators, I only care about objectively analyzing the auction.  Once gold came back down inside the channel it's time to step aside for me and wait for something new to develop using my methodology.  I'm in no hurry.  Good opportunities to trade will come again as always.

From an auction market perspective, $1,650 is still a fair price in the eyes of the market.  I have included a dashed grey trendline off the recent swing low in the channel as a reference for potential supply to increase on a breakdown there inside the channel.  There has been repeated demand at $1,630 previously, but will it still be there next time if gold breaks down below this new level of trendline support on the daily?  

If this new dashed trendline is tested and there is a bounce, it could become a future reference for risk management or an initial stop loss placement on the next leg higher.

(Click on chart to expand)


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