Weekend Update - S&P 500

I think it is a good idea to review a prior 2 page article of mine from early January 2012 on the S&P 500 that included some Auction Market Theory, Risk and Reward, and Pricing Patterns in multiple degree timeframes, before reading this weekend's commentary below.  I did this article for ETFDigest and it was posted at TheStreet.com.  The link can be found here:  http://www.thestreet.com/story/11371500/1/spy-forming-a-balance-area.html

Since March 15th, 2012 the emini S&P 500 futures are showing congestion in the daily timeframe and it somewhat resembles a "Diamond" pattern.  The diamond pattern when well defined can be either a continuation (accumulation) or reversal (distribution) pattern.  It is pointless to predict what may happen from here looking at the daily chart.

What is more interesting is the 30 minute chart left hand side below, and I have left off the overnight price action to point out what resembles a potential "Head and Shoulders" pattern brewing.  The H&S does not come into play unless there is a rollover here on the right shoulder and the neckline breaks.  Until then this is noise and any new pattern could develop.  I can't emphasize this enough that I do not anticipate a price move and get in a trade early.  What I am doing is intuitively identifying a potential pattern and determining what are the implications or probabilities in the reward to risk, so that I can develop a trade plan that will react to price action and volume without thinking or rationalizing.  Trading by the seat of my pants is not what I am about.

(Click on chart to expand)

I do my best to tweet out my post promptly on twitter/ScottPluschau
Consulting? ScottPluschau@gmail.com
Members to the blog are appreciated
Comments are welcome